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The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World Paperback – Unabridged, April 15, 1996

by Peter Schwartz (Author)
4.3 4.3 out of 5 stars 237 ratings
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What increasingly affects all of us, whether professional planners or individuals preparing for a better future, is not the tangibles of life—bottom-line numbers, for instance—but the intangibles: our hopes and fears, our beliefs and dreams. Only stories—scenarios—and our ability to visualize different kinds of futures adequately capture these intangibles.

In The Art of the Long View, now for the first time in paperback and with the addition of an all-new User's Guide, Peter Schwartz outlines the "scenaric" approach, giving you the tools for developing a strategic vision within your business.

Schwartz describes the new techniques, originally developed within Royal/Dutch Shell, based on many of his firsthand scenario exercises with the world's leading institutions and companies, including the White House, EPA, BellSouth, PG&E, and the International Stock Exchange.

Previous page
  1. Print length
    272 pages
  2. Language
    English
  3. Publisher
    Crown Currency
  4. Publication date
    April 15, 1996
  5. Dimensions
    6.08 x 0.79 x 9.14 inches
  6. ISBN-10
    0385267320
  7. ISBN-13
    978-0385267328
  8. See all details
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Editorial Reviews

From the Back Cover

What increasingly affects all of us, whether professional planners or individuals preparing for a better future, is not the tangibles of life - bottom-line numbers, for instance - but the intangibles: our hopes and fears, our beliefs and dreams. Only stories - scenarios - and our ability to visualize different kinds of futures adequately capture these intangibles. In The Art of the Long View, now for the first time in paperback and with the addition of an all-new User's Guide, Peter Schwartz outlines the "scenaric" approach, giving you the tools for developing a strategic vision within your business. Schwartz describes the new techniques, originally developed within Royal/Dutch Shell, based on many of his firsthand scenario exercises with the world's leading institutions and companies, including the White House, EPA, BellSouth, PG&E, and the International Stock Exchange.

About the Author

Peter Schwartz is the chairman of the board of directors of the Ayn Rand Institute, as well as the teacher of an advanced writing course at the Institute's Objectivist Graduate Center.

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Crown Currency; Reprint edition (April 15, 1996)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Paperback ‏ : ‎ 272 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0385267320
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0385267328
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 10.6 ounces
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 6.08 x 0.79 x 9.14 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.3 4.3 out of 5 stars 237 ratings

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Peter Schwartz

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Customer reviews

4.3 out of 5 stars
4.3 out of 5
237 global ratings
“What to do when SHTF, the book”
5 Stars
“What to do when SHTF, the book”
Probably one of my top 10 business books, must read for anyone running a company
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Top reviews from the United States

Matt Mayevsky
5.0 out of 5 stars From today, Peter Schwartz is my guru
Reviewed in the United States on March 25, 2015
Verified Purchase
The Art of the Long View is one of the best books I've read about foresight. The publication contains many valuable examples of business use of foresight with particular emphasis on the scenario method. What can you learn from a book? First of all, the publication opens your eyes to the possibilities offered by foresight in every area of ​​life. Second, the author puts emphasis on business applications convincing about the need and possibilities of foresight for both corporations and small businesses. Thirdly, backed by the experience of the author examples are illustrative, interesting and compelling. A great idea is contained in the publication of a letter to his son. Also note the appendix describing the steps to developing scenarios.
Author of The Art of the Long View is a former employee of SRI International, Shell and co-founder of the Global Business Network. From today, Peter Schwartz is my guru of the foreight and scenario method.
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FJJ
4.0 out of 5 stars The Art of the Long View: Good Book for Future Scenario Planning
Reviewed in the United States on January 17, 2014
Verified Purchase
The Art of the Long View by Peter Schwartz is mainly a training guide for scenario planning. It does not give step-by-step instructions without the reader having to go through the whole book. The book is an easy read but starts out in the first chapter or two seeming like an info commercial trying to set the foundation of the product right before the viewer (or reader) changes the channel. This foundation of Schwartz’ background and case studies, particularly in the oil industry, are referenced throughout the rest of the book and are necessary before the reader really starts getting into it.

Schwartz did a great job in his case study examples explaining how one has to pull the past historical data of events for expectation of what could happen on the three scenario paths that can be taken. The reason for stating “could happen” is that Schwartz made it clear to the reader that scenario planning is not a prediction of the future but merely a tool to use to drive your decisions and prepare for what could happen from the worst extreme to the best extreme outcome. What are the big issues and how does one go about using filters to overcome obstacles for what’s important? These are skills that have to be learned by some but may be a natural instinct by others.

Schwartz also mentions that one should narrow the scenarios’ to no more than three as they may overlap and to write the scenarios out as if you were writing a book. He also mentioned that the “driving forces, predetermined elements, and critical uncertainties” must be looked at in order to give “structure to our exploration of the future”. Among the driving forces any event of “society, technology, economy, politics, and environment” can change the course of the future journey.

What I liked mostly about the book is how Schwartz went back in time with the readers to the 1960 – 1990’s (my era) and explained the events and how they effected other events socially, politically, economically, and even the drive on the environmental issues. He really did a great job connecting some of the dot’s that drove our economics at the time. It was educational and the younger adults could benefit from this history. His analysis on the teenagers, particularly the baby boomers, was right on target. The baby boomers made major social changes and there are the “global teenagers” that will also make an impact but maybe not as big economically since some of those groups are from poorer countries. (I think I will check into some stocks in the medical industry and hopefully get out in time before so many hospitals and medical facilities are no longer needed as the baby boomers grow older… Schwartz book just makes me think is all…)

The last item in my review is the technology scenarios mentioned in the book. One has to continually remind themselves when the book was originally written; in 1990. I don’t believe there were too many updates, if any, to the 1996 books printed. Schwartz made some pretty good scenarios in the book regarding the virtual world but maybe one network overlooked is the wireless market which has really played a large part in technological advances since the book was written.

Perhaps Schwartz should write a second part called, “The Art of the Longview: The Past 25 Years and Planning for the Infinite Future”. The history for his next scenario would cover the dot.com era, events on 9/11 and the aftermath, at least two major hurricanes, iPhone and Smart phone market, the drive of converting analog to digital, the first black president, impact to the Japan tsunami, the capture of Saddam Hussien and Bin Laden, affordable healthcare, new regulations, gun control, Washington and Colorado passing sale of marijuana, our borders, how the Cowboy’s haven’t won but one playoff game since the mid-90’s (JK), etc…. etc…, etc… There is a lot to write about for Schwartz that has happened in the past 25 years along with comparing his scenarios’ giving new ones.
10 people found this helpful
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Alicia Crumpton
5.0 out of 5 stars Scenario Planning, Imagining the Future
Reviewed in the United States on January 2, 2014
Verified Purchase
This is a must read for those interested in strategic thinking, strategic visioning, and in moving beyond biases and assumptions to imagine the future. Schwartz noted, "I wrote this book [to show individuals] how to begin using a method for investigating important decisions" (p. xiii). He continued to note that the point isn't to pick one future but instead to " make strategic decisions that will be sound for all plausible futures. . . . Scenario planning is about making choices today with an understanding of how they might turn out" (pp. xiv, 4). Such an important discussion and aspect of imagining new possibilities! In an appendix Schwartz identifies the steps to developing scenarios.
2 people found this helpful
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Charlotte Sloan
5.0 out of 5 stars Great for military
Reviewed in the United States on September 4, 2019
Verified Purchase
Must read for all current a future leaders of the military. This is how you develop strategic thinkers who may be positioned at the strategic, operational or tactical level.
2 people found this helpful
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White Rose
4.0 out of 5 stars A bit shallow but there is not much on the topic
Reviewed in the United States on March 25, 2024
Verified Purchase
I got to it after I have read Faber's book on 'Tomorrow's Gold'.
The scenario planning some of us happen to master (I definitely have no idea about it and I wanted to learn).
But this book fails to teach you much.
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Daniel F Dietzel
5.0 out of 5 stars “What to do when SHTF, the book”
Reviewed in the United States on March 28, 2021
Verified Purchase
Probably one of my top 10 business books, must read for anyone running a company
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Daniel F Dietzel
5.0 out of 5 stars “What to do when SHTF, the book”
Reviewed in the United States on March 28, 2021
Probably one of my top 10 business books, must read for anyone running a company
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One person found this helpful
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Robert Cluff
3.0 out of 5 stars Good 40 page essay, lousy 250 pg book
Reviewed in the United States on March 30, 2016
Verified Purchase
Padded, repetitive, self promoting. Basic thesis has merit but could be stated in a shorter essay.
One person found this helpful
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Alexandra & Ruben
5.0 out of 5 stars Trustworthy
Reviewed in the United States on April 30, 2021
Verified Purchase
Perfect! Just as described.
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Top reviews from other countries

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Gabriel Cámara
2.0 out of 5 stars Old book same good advices
Reviewed in Mexico on May 28, 2023
Verified Purchase
Se le notan los años al libro escrito durante los años 90s interesante analizar varios temas que se volvieron realidad.
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Luigi Esposito
5.0 out of 5 stars a proper tool for mangers
Reviewed in Italy on February 26, 2022
Verified Purchase
The book has to be considered a body of experience. An empirical "equation" about building a guideline for plausible futures. I find it useful as a manager to understand a methodological approach to build a set of strategic decisions for your company and for your life. Easy tobread and to understand. then just try it
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Tam
5.0 out of 5 stars Great book
Reviewed in Canada on December 20, 2018
Verified Purchase
Worth the money and the read
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Benigno
5.0 out of 5 stars Aprendendo a planejar cenários com um dos futuristas mais importantes do mundo.
Reviewed in Brazil on May 29, 2016
Verified Purchase
O objetivo aqui é explicar o processo do que ele chama de "construção de cenários", que permite aos gestores "inventar e, em seguida, considerar em profundidade uma quantidade variada de futuros igualmente plausíveis" para que se possa fazer (em suas palavras) "strategic decisions that will be sound for all plausible futures. No matter what future takes place, you are much more likely to be ready for it -- and influential in it -- if you have thought seriously about scenarios."

Os gerentes de empresas (independentemente do tamanho ou da natureza) já estão plenamente cientes da mudança constante dentro dos próprios mercados cada vez mais competitivos. Os recentes desenvolvimentos, como por exemplo a utilização da Internet para acelerar a globalização, sugerem que a mudança ocorrerá progressivamente mais rápida e terá progressivamente maior impacto, tanto positivos como negativos para as organizações em geral.

Enquanto isso ocorre, por razões óbvias, os gestores das empresas enfrentam situações diárias que requerem atenção imediata e frequentemente eles devem rapidamente tomar decisões que têm implicações profundas no longo prazo. E sabemos como é difícil ver "o quadro mais amplo", para mantermos uma perspectiva de longo prazo.

Schwartz evita fazer previsões, em vez disso, ele ajuda o leitor a formular o grau de probabilidade que certos eventos possam vir a ter - nos ajudando a nos preparar em conformidade.

Quero atentar para o fato de que o livro não vai lhe fornecer soluções concretas para questões muito específicas para a formulação de cenários, no entanto, o autor garante que você terá uma visão geral de como projetar cenários convincentes, de onde e como coletar os dados adequados para preencher os cenários escolhidos, sobre como compor um enredo em torno deles, como interpretá-los ou integrá-los em uma estratégia.

Há exemplos de previsões do autor, onde ele demonstrou os conceitos, o que torna a leitura bem mais dinâmica. Mesmo que a maioria das previsões estejam datadas (o que não as torna menos relevantes). Algumas são incrivelmente fascinantes de ver o processo em sua previsão, já outras envelheceram um pouco diferente (no entanto a criação de cenários não é sobre a precisão da previsão); em todos os caso o esforço de pensar sobre futuros possíveis e o que eles significam para um indivíduo, empresa, indústria ou país definitivamente vale a pena, mesmo que os cenários definidos especificamente não venham a ser exatamente como o previsto.

O aspecto mais interessante que fica é que planejar o futuro nos permite agir muito mais rapidamente e de forma sustentável numa rápida mudança devido à preparação prévia. Certamente é uma excelente prática que muitas empresas/pessoas só teriam a ganhar caso utilizassem.
4 people found this helpful
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J-Robert Gibson
5.0 out of 5 stars Distilled wisdom
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on December 31, 2014
Verified Purchase
Distilled wisdom. The combination of sound theory and hard practical experience. Read it if you want to use scenario planning.
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